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Canadian real GDP rose by 0.1 per cent in March, after declining by 0.2 per cent in February. Goods-producing sectors rose 0.2 per cent, while service-producing industries increased by 0.1 per cent.
Sectoral growth was led by:
- Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (2.2 per cent)
- Construction (0.5 per cent)
- Retail trade (0.8 per cent)
Output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers fell by 4.5 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry increased by 0.1 per cent in April.
Q1 2025 Performance
Real GDP increased by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, registering an annualized growth rate of 2.2 per cent.
Household spending growth slowed to 0.3 per cent, leading to just a 0.1 per cent increase in per capita household expenditures.
Growth was driven by increased trade, with:
- Exports of goods and services up 1.6 per cent
- Imports up 1.1 per cent
Investment performance:
- Residential structures: -2.8 per cent
- Non-residential structures: -1.6 per cent
- Machinery and equipment: +5.3 per cent
The household savings rate fell from 6.0 per cent to 5.7 per cent, as disposable income growth lagged behind nominal household expenditures, and investment income declined.
On a per capita basis, GDP rose 0.4 per cent in Q1 after a 0.1 per cent increase in the previous quarter.
Outlook and Policy Considerations
Tariff-avoidant behaviour from Canadian households, businesses, and trading partners helped push GDP growth above the Bank of Canada's most recent projection.
Much of the Q1 growth came from rising exports, as U.S. firms and households made advance purchases to avoid upcoming tariffs.
With ongoing concerns about the impact of volatile trade policies, this report may sway the Bank of Canada towards holding interest rates steady at their next meeting to mitigate inflationary risks.
Moving forward, the Bank will monitor Q2 data for signs of slowing economic momentum and inflationary pressures due to tariffs and trade uncertainty.
Learn More
For more information regarding British Columbia's GDP growth, please visit our Nowcast for an estimate of economic activity throughout the province:
DRAFT: BCREA Nowcast for March and April Prelim by Economics - Infogram
Posted by Adam Chahl on
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