Canadian Employment (October 2024) – November 8, 2024

Canadian employment rose by 0.1 percent from the previous month, growing by 15,000 jobs to 20.597 million in October. The employment rate fell by 0.1 points to 60.6 per cent, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5 per cent. Average hourly wages increased by 4.9 per cent year-over-year, reaching $35.76 last month. Total hours worked rose 1.6 per cent from October of the previous year.

Employment in British Columbia (B.C.)

Employment in B.C. declined by 0.3 per cent to 2.829 million, despite a gain of 8,000 jobs in October. This marks the first month of provincial job growth since April 2024. Employment in Metro Vancouver saw a 1.2 per cent increase, reaching 1.606 million in October. The unemployment rate in B.C. dropped by 0.2 points to 5.8 per cent, while Vancouver’s unemployment rate decreased by 0.5 points to 6.2 per cent from the previous month.

Economic Insights

October's employment statistics reflect a gradual economic recovery, aided by falling interest rates. Public and private sector job growth remained largely steady, with only three of sixteen major Canadian industries showing significant changes in employment from the previous month. This cautious approach suggests that companies may be waiting for more favorable financing conditions before expanding their workforce.

With the unemployment rate holding steady amid modest hiring activity, a substantial rate cut by the Bank of Canada seems unlikely in the short term. However, the outcome of the recent U.S. election adds an element of unpredictability to the Bank’s outlook. How the Bank interprets the implications of a potential new Trump administration for the Canadian economy, along with incoming data on October inflation, could prompt a more aggressive rate cut. Financial markets currently favor a 50-basis point cut in December.