Canadian Retail Sales (September 2024)

Canadian retail sales rose 0.4 per cent to $66.9 billion in September from the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales are up by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, rose by 1.4 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales rose 0.8 per cent in September.

For the third quarter of 2024, retail sales rose by 0.9 per cent overall and by 1.3 per cent in volume terms.

Regional Performance

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 0.6 per cent in September month-over-month, while down 0.5 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 1.2 per cent from the prior month and 0.3 per cent higher than September 2023.

Economic Implications

September's retail sales built upon the positive momentum generated in August with respect to Canadian consumption. Growth in both headline and core retail sales—which exclude volatile items—suggests a broad-based recovery in consumer spending, which is expected to strengthen into the winter with the newly announced GST holiday.

Moving toward their next meeting, the Bank of Canada will monitor whether GDP growth strengthens in line with September's retail growth, as well as whether employment and CPI inflation stabilize at neutral levels. Positive trends in these areas could propel the Bank back onto its regular trajectory of 25 basis point cuts until reaching their neutral range.