Vancouver’s famously pricey real estate market has been showing clear signs of cooling in late 2025. Sales in Metro Vancouver are down substantially, and prices have flattened or dipped from their recent highs. An abundance of homes for sale inventory levels are now above the 10-year average means buyers have more choices and negotiating power than in past years. In fact, new data show the composite benchmark price in Vancouver at about $1.124 million in November 2025, nearly 4% below last year’s level. Detached homes averaged about $1.900 M (−4.3% year-over-year) and condos about $714 K (−5.2%). This downturn is partly due to higher mortgage rates earlier in the year and a recent slowdown in demand.
A cooling trend has emerged in Vancouver’s housing market by late 2025, with more homes for sale and softer prices. Buyers now have more options in both condos and houses, and sellers are accepting that listings must meet the new market reality. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) was about 41% in October 2025, which technically puts Vancouver in a balanced market (40–60% range). However, that ratio is on the low side of balanced, and many analysts consider Vancouver effectively a buyer’s market right now. In a buyer’s market, sales lag new listings and buyers can often negotiate harder on price. The high inventory and longer selling times seen in fall 2025 show that buyers generally hold the upper hand today.
Key 2025 Trends: Sales are roughly 15% lower than a year ago; inventory is at multi-year highs; prices are down 3–5% across most segments. Toronto-based RBC Economics notes that in “abundantly supplied markets such as Vancouver…buyers hold strong bargaining positions”. Mortgage Sandbox likewise reports “inventory levels have risen to their highest point in three years” and declares Vancouver a “strong buyer’s market”. All these point to softer conditions for sellers and more opportunity for buyers.
Vancouver Home Prices & Forecast
The near-term outlook for Vancouver home prices is mixed. After bouncing strongly in late 2024, the market “lost momentum” in early 2025 as buyers pulled back on concerns over tariffs and affordability. Industry forecasts generally see only mild price growth ahead. For example, a Reuters poll of economists predicts Canadian home prices could rise about 1.8% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, following a small decline in 2025. Greater Vancouver tends to move with national trends, though local factors (like ultra-low inventory in past years) can amplify swings. Right now, most observers expect only gradual changes: prices likely won’t crash, but also won’t leap up suddenly.
In 2025 the Vancouver market has shown “trending downward” home values, having “broken through a psychological price-floor” at roughly $1.94 M for detached houses. Many forecasters now see Vancouver prices holding near current levels or inching up slowly once buyer confidence rebuilds. Low mortgage rates (the Bank of Canada cut rates in Sept. and Oct. 2025 to 2.25%) and any economic upturn could modestly boost demand. RBC Economics notes that by November 2025, Vancouver’s benchmark price index was about 3.9% lower than a year earlier, and they expect “high inventory and low affordability” to keep prices subdued in the coming months. In short, the forecast is for a balanced or slowly improving market: prices may begin to firm, but only after a period of sideways movement.
Condos vs. Detached Homes
The cooling trend affects condos and houses similarly, but condo buyers have seen slightly steeper price drops. In October 2025, the average condo price in Vancouver was about $719K, down 5.1% from the previous year. Detached houses averaged $1.921 M (−4.0%) and townhomes $1.067 M (−3.8%). In late 2025, benchmark prices were roughly $1.900 M for detached (down ~4.3% YoY) and $714 K for condos (down ~5.2%). In other words, both segments are lower than in 2024, with condos showing the sharper decline.
Condo buyers in Vancouver now find much more inventory and a lack of bidding wars. A report notes that unsold condo units remain high and that “the condo market is expected to continue struggling for the next two years”. Mortgage Sandbox confirms the condo market is a “buyer’s market” with inventories elevated. New condo projects have slowed, with some cancelled or delayed as developers wait for demand to recover. For would-be condo buyers, this means they can negotiate more on price or get incentives on new builds, rather than face the frantic competition seen earlier in the decade.
Detached homes also saw prices ease, but the decline has been modest. Vancouver house prices have fallen back towards the “psychological barrier” of $1.94 M set in early 2024. That support level was breached in late 2025, indicating a modest correction. Yet even with this pullback, houses remain very expensive by historical standards. Mortgage Sandbox notes that after years of limited listings, the surge in inventory means sellers now have “less power in negotiations” and buyers have a clear advantage. Still, many detached homes are holding value relatively well, especially in supply-constrained neighborhoods.
Homes vs. Condos: In summary, Vancouver’s condo market has seen sharper declines and remains over-supplied, while detached houses have only eased a bit. For buyers deciding between the two, the choice often comes down to budget and lifestyle. Condos are now relatively more attractive on price and availability, but detached houses may offer more room to grow in value once market conditions normalize.
Is Vancouver a Buyer’s Market?
Yes – at least for now. With inventories high and sales muted, the market favors buyers. Recall that an SNLR below 40% is a buyers’ market, 40–60% is balanced, and above 60% favors sellers. In October 2025 Vancouver’s SNLR was about 41% – just inside the “balanced” range, but trending toward buyer-leaning. Many sources treat Vancouver as a buyer’s market in 2025. Mortgage Sandbox explicitly calls Vancouver a “buyer’s market” today, and notes that “supply levels have been higher than in previous years” giving buyers an advantage. Realtors in Greater Vancouver also describe a market with “plentiful inventory” and buyers enjoying more choice.
In practical terms, buyers have won some negotiating power. Properties are taking longer to sell and prices are softening, meaning sellers can no longer assume quick, over-asking offers. As one industry analyst puts it, “sales volumes remain subdued and inventory remains plentiful…properties are taking longer to sell, and pricing has continued to soften slightly across most market segments”. In this environment, buyers may successfully negotiate price reductions, closing concessions, or faster possession dates that would have been rare in a red-hot market.
Should You Buy or Wait?
This is the million-dollar question, especially for first-time buyers or investors. The answer depends on personal factors (finances, urgency) and market timing. On one hand, the current market favors buyers: prices have eased and interest rates have recently been cut, improving affordability. Some experts even suggest it may be an opportune time to enter. For example, local realtor Mike Wall notes fall 2025 conditions of “softer prices, more listings, and falling interest rates” and concludes it could be one of the best times in years to buy. The Bank of Canada cut rates twice in late 2025 (to 2.25%), and most analysts believe rates will hold steady into 2026. Those lower borrowing costs mean bigger mortgage budgets and perhaps even more price support, as RBC observed that rate cuts “further improved affordability for buyers” and could unlock pent-up demand.
If you need a home or condo, buying now can lock in a lower price and take advantage of these conditions. The market may be near its bottom. As Wall writes, “the market is at or near the bottom of the current cycle” and buying now could allow you to capture future appreciation. Even Vancouver Housing Board FAQs suggest that if you’re prepared, “buying during periods of price stabilization in 2025 could offer long-term benefits”.
However, waiting also has merits. Some analysts warn prices may drift a bit lower before rebounding. RBC expects inventory and weak demand to drive prices down further in the short term. The survey of economists (Reuters poll) expects a national price rebound only in 2026. If you can keep renting or saving, an extra year of saving for a down payment (or more rate cuts) might help, though by late 2025 rates appear to have bottomed. Also, Vancouver remains highly unaffordable: even with lower prices, a median-income first-time buyer still faces a huge gap between income and required down payment.
Factors to weigh:
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Interest rates: Fixed 5-year rates are around 5-6%, down from last year. If you expect rates to stay low for the long run, buying now and locking in 5%+ rates could be wise. If you fear rates might fall further, renting longer and renewing later could save money.
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Market momentum: Some signs hint the worst may be over (rising sales volumes in late 2025, pent-up demand), but new tariff and economic uncertainties could keep buyers cautious.
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Personal timeline: If you need stability (e.g. growing family, aging downsizer), buying a home may be better than waiting indefinitely. If you have flexibility and the market dips more, waiting could let you shop later at similar or slightly lower prices.
Ultimately, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer. A common theme is that conditions are more favorable now than in a year or two, but Vancouver real estate is still a long-term game. If you are financially ready and plan to hold for many years, buying in a cooling market can be a smart move.
Tips for Different Buyers
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First-Time Home Buyers (Vancouver): If you qualify, now’s a rare chance to buy with negotiation power. Look at smaller, affordable segments (e.g. condos or townhouses in suburbs) and take advantage of first-time buyer incentives (federal/BC tax credits, exemptions, or the Home Buyer’s Plan) to ease the cost. Keep in mind that Vancouver is still extremely expensive – a typical $75K household could only qualify for a $300K mortgage and might need $380K cash to buy a $680K condo. In other words, even at these lower prices many first-timers still need family help or very high savings. Experts say affordability for first-time buyers should improve modestly with rate cuts, so weigh whether a half-point drop in rates (or extra savings) makes the difference.
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Move-Up Buyers and Downsizers: If you’re upsizing (family growing) or downsizing (kids left home), compare old and new mortgage costs carefully. Lower rates may offset some price premium. Downsizers might sell a big house and buy a condo; now you could likely negotiate extras on the condo (parking, upgrades) instead of price cuts. Just be sure to factor in carrying costs: even if you sell high, buying high means similar mortgage size – so the market dip might not change your payment drastically.
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Investors: Caution is advised. Rental demand in Vancouver remains solid long-term, but the near-term rental market has slightly softened (average rents fell by 4–7% year-over-year in 2025). With condo prices down ~5% and rents drifting lower, cap rates have slipped. Many new condo projects are on hold or offering incentives, suggesting builder inventory will shrink but also that new supply is not coming. If you’re buying to rent, ensure you’re still cash-flow positive, or have a long horizon to wait for rents to rise again. If you own investment property, don’t panic-sell: the value dip is small so far, and refinancing at today’s rates may cost more than holding for stability. As Mortgage Sandbox notes, a benchmark condo is roughly $50K cheaper than 18 months ago – a steep change – so evaluate whether to sell or hold based on your long-term strategy.
Position Yourself for Vancouver’s Next Market Phase
Vancouver’s housing market has clearly shifted and that creates opportunity for prepared buyers. Looking ahead to 2026, most experts expect stabilization rather than a new boom or crash. Slower population and economic growth may keep demand from surging, while resale inventory remains high and new development is constrained by pre-sale financing challenges. Together, these forces point to a more balanced market environment.
With borrowing costs lower than earlier in the cycle and potential improvements in jobs or immigration, sales activity could gradually pick up in 2026. Many forecasters anticipate modest price gains, though a return to past peaks may take several years. In the meantime, prices remain slightly below their highs, inventory is elevated, and buyers are negotiating from a position of strength.
This cooling phase gives buyers rare breathing room, but it also requires clarity and confidence. Whether you’re debating buying now or waiting, the right decision depends on your financial readiness, time horizon, and neighbourhood strategy.
Adam Chahl and the PLACE Real Estate Team help buyers and sellers navigate moments like this with expert guidance and honest, data-driven advice.
Thinking about buying, selling, or waiting? Connect with Adam Chahl today to build a strategy that puts you in the best position for 2026 and beyond.
FAQs
1. What is the Vancouver housing market outlook for 2026?
Most forecasts point to gradual stabilization with modest price growth—not a major rebound or crash.
2. Is Vancouver still a buyer’s market?
Yes. Higher inventory and softer demand give buyers more leverage than in recent years.
3. Will prices drop more before rising again?
Some short-term softness is possible, but many expect prices to move sideways before slowly firming.
4. Does it make sense to buy during a cooling market?
For buyers planning to hold long term, cooler markets often provide better pricing and negotiation power.
5. Why work with Adam Chahl now?
Because market shifts create both risk and opportunity. Adam helps you act strategically, not emotionally, in a changing Vancouver market.
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