British Columbia’s housing market has been on a roller coaster in recent years, leaving many to wonder: will home prices finally go down in 2025? This guide examines the latest data and forecasts – focusing on B.C. – to help both buyers and sellers navigate the 2025 housing market. We’ll look at recent price trends (2023–2024), supply and demand indicators, mortgage rate forecasts, and what they all mean for home prices in the year ahead. This is a data-driven analysis (no wild guesses or expert hype) to give you a clear picture of risks, opportunities, and timing considerations in British Columbia’s housing market.
Recent Market Trends: 2023–2024 Recap in B.C.
Over the past year, Canada’s housing market – and B.C. in particular – experienced a cooldown from the frenzied peak of 2021. After interest rates spiked in 2022 to combat inflation, home sales plummeted in 2022 and early 2023. Buyers faced sticker shock from higher mortgage costs, and many retreated to the sidelines. Province-wide home sales in 2023 ended up well below the 10-year average, and 2024 sales were essentially flat compared to 2023.
Home prices in B.C. dropped from their early 2022 peak once housing demand cooled. By early 2023, the average home price in many B.C. markets had fallen around 10–15% from the top. However, mid-to-late 2023 saw prices stabilize as supply tightened and buyers adjusted to the new normal. By 2024, prices were roughly flat on a year-over-year basis in B.C.
One big change in 2023–2024 was a rise in homes for sale. Active listings piled up in 2023 when sales slowed, finally giving some relief to the tight supply conditions. By early 2025, B.C. had nearly 34,000 active listings – 27.7% more homes on the market than a year before. This shift pushed the market toward more balanced territory: the sales-to-active listings ratio in B.C. dropped to about 14.6%, tipping conditions in buyers’ favor.
Not all parts of B.C. moved in sync. Greater Vancouver, the province’s priciest region, saw average prices in early 2025 about 4% lower than a year earlier, with sales down almost 12% year-over-year. The Fraser Valley had an even sharper 27% drop in sales. Meanwhile, some smaller markets held up or grew: Victoria managed a 9.7% increase in sales year-over-year, and interior regions like the Okanagan saw prices rise around 9% annually.
Even as the resale housing market cooled, rental market conditions remained historically tight in 2023–24. B.C.’s rental vacancy rate was under 2% for much of 2023. By late 2024 there was a slight improvement – the province’s vacancy rate ticked up to 1.9% – but this is still very low. In Metro Vancouver, average rents reached record highs. A two-bedroom apartment now costs around $2,314 per month on average, far above the national average rent.
Demand Drivers for 2025
British Columbia is experiencing a population boom. The province’s population grew by over 3% in 2023, the fastest pace since the 1970s. This surge is fueled almost entirely by immigration. In 2022 alone, about 150,800 people moved to B.C. from other countries. By late 2023, 8.2% of B.C.’s residents were temporary migrants (international students, work permit holders, etc.).
More people means more housing demand. New immigrants and migrants initially rent and many eventually strive to buy homes. High population growth underpins housing demand in B.C. and puts a floor under how far prices are likely to fall, especially in urban centers where most newcomers settle.
B.C.’s economy in 2024 has been moderating. High interest rates cooled consumer spending and sectors like construction. Unemployment edged up slightly. Still, the job market remains relatively healthy going into 2025. A wildcard for 2025 is the external economic environment – notably a potential trade war with the U.S.
The cost of borrowing is the dominant factor for housing markets right now. The rapid rise of interest rates in 2022–2023 was the primary reason the housing market cooled. However, the script started to flip in late 2024. With inflation coming under control and the economy slowing, the Bank of Canada pivoted to rate cuts in the second half of 2024. By March 2025, the Bank’s overnight policy rate had fallen to 2.75%, down from 5.00% a year earlier.
Consumer sentiment is another critical factor. Affordability in B.C. remains a challenge. In cities like Vancouver, affordability is at crisis levels. At the end of 2023, RBC reported that owning a representative home in Vancouver required 106.4% of a median household’s income for the mortgage payments, taxes, and utilities. While Vancouver is an outlier, many parts of B.C. are only slightly better.
Housing Supply and Construction Outlook
Active resale listings in B.C. have grown from record lows. Inventory is just back to more “normal” levels from an extremely low base. For prices to drop sharply, we’d likely need a glut of listings or forced selling. So far, there’s little sign of that.
B.C. had a construction boom in 2021–2022, which helped push housing starts to a record high in 2023. According to CMHC, 50,490 new housing units were started in B.C. in 2023 – an all-time high. However, in 2024, housing starts fell about 9.2% to 45,828 units. Higher financing costs for developers, labor shortages, and economic uncertainty led to fewer new projects.
The mix of new construction has tilted heavily toward multi-family. In 2024, about 80% of all new housing starts in B.C. were apartments or condos. Starts for single-detached houses have plummeted. Rental construction held steady – around 17,600 new rental units started in 2024, on par with 2023.
The rental side of housing is also important. The vacancy rate in Metro Vancouver rose to 1.6% from near 1% a year before. However, renter affordability is still strained and most new rentals are high-end units that many renters can’t afford.
Price Forecasts for 2025: Will B.C. Home Prices Go Down?
The B.C. Real Estate Association forecasts that the average home price in B.C. will rise by a modest ~3% in 2025. CREA forecasts a nationwide uptick in both sales and prices in 2025, with a projected 4.7% increase in the national average price. However, this is not evenly distributed. British Columbia and Ontario are expected to see smaller price gains than the national average.
CMHC’s most recent Housing Market Outlook predicted that home prices in B.C. would bottom out in 2023 and then begin recovering through 2024 and 2025. Some big banks also predicted a price trough around early 2024, followed by modest growth.
Early 2025 data shows the average home price in B.C. was about $964,000, down 2.4% compared to February 2024. The benchmark price was virtually unchanged year-over-year. Month-to-month, prices were ticking up slightly through late winter.
What This Means for Buyers in 2025
Based on the data, it’s unlikely that home prices will suddenly plummet in 2025. Buyers who sat out the market due to high costs may continue to wait if they don’t see sufficient improvement in affordability. However, the frenzy is over. With sales activity still relatively low and inventory up, buyers can afford to be patient and negotiate.
Interest rates are on a downward trend. Fixed-rate mortgages are dipping into the mid-4% range. Buyers should get pre-approved, compare rate options, and ensure they can handle monthly payments.
Buyers should also explore first-time buyer programs and incentives. The First Home Savings Account (FHSA), longer amortization options, and higher insured mortgage thresholds may help.
What This Means for Sellers in 2025
The market dynamics have shifted from a pure seller’s market to a more balanced one. Sellers should price realistically, prepare their homes to stand out, and be patient. Homes are taking longer to sell than in recent years.
For sellers also looking to buy, the balanced market provides an opportunity to coordinate both transactions. Downsizers may benefit from softer prices on smaller properties, while upsizers may find the price gap has narrowed.
Conclusion and Key Takeaways
The B.C. housing market in 2025 is poised to be a transition period – moving from the cooldown of the past two years toward a more active market. Will house prices go down in 2025? For British Columbia, the likely answer is no – at least not significantly.
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B.C. home prices are expected to remain stable or rise slightly in 2025.
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High interest rates held back demand in 2023–24, but the tide is turning.
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Population growth and limited housing supply support prices.
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2025 will be a more balanced market, creating opportunities and risks.
Ready to buy or sell in 2025?
At PLACE Real Estate Team – Oakwyn Realty, we combine data-driven strategy with hands-on service to help our clients make confident, profitable decisions in any market. Whether you're looking to move, invest, or explore your options, our team is here to guide you every step of the way. Reach out today to speak with a local expert and take the next step in your real estate journey.
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